Kathryn Jean Keller

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 9th, 2019

December 9, 2019 by Kathryn Jean Keller

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 9th, 2019Last week’s economic reports included readings on construction spending and multiple labor sector reports including private and public sector jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on average mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Falls 0.80 Percent in October

Commerce Department reports on construction spending said that spending fell by 0.80 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $1.29 million. Analysts expected construction spending to increase by 0.40 percent based on September’s original reading of 0.50 percent growth, which was later revised to -0.30 percent.

Less construction of multifamily homes and apartments caused a decrease in October construction spending. Private construction spending fell by -1.00 percent in October; residential construction fell 0.90 percent as multi-family construction spending fell 1.60 percent after a 2.10 percent dip in September. Construction spending on single-family homes increased by 1.60 percent.

Low mortgage rates, a strong job market, and rising wages contributed to a strong demand for homes. Short inventories of available homes continued to pressure home builders to build more homes; construction of homes jumped 3.80 percent in October.

Mortgage Rates, Mixed, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported no change in the average rate of 3.68 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.14 percent and were one basis point lower than for the prior week.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages fell four basis points on average to 3.39 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages and 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell from the prior week’s reading of 213,000 claims to 203,000 claims filed last week. ADP reported 67,000 private-sector jobs added in November.

The federal government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report offset the dismal reading for private-sector job growth. 266,000 public and private sector jobs were added in November and surpassed expectations of 180,000 public and private sector jobs added.

Approximately 55,000 were accounted for as auto workers returned after a strike. 156,0000 public and private sector jobs were added in October. The national unemployment rate dropped to 3.50 percent in November and matched the reading for unemployment posted at the end of 1969.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, retail sales and the post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a press conference after the FOMC statement. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Financial Reports Tagged: Financial Reports, Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 2nd, 2019

December 2, 2019 by Kathryn Jean Keller

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 2nd, 2019Last week’s economic news included readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, readings on new and pending home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. The holiday break on Thursday and Friday curtailed some economic reports.

Case-Shiller Reports Uptick in September Home Prices

Home prices rose 0.10 percent to a year-over-year growth rate of 3.20 percent in September. Rates of home price growth showed a new geographic trend with smaller cities showing higher home price growth than the coastal cities that dominated rapid home price growth in recent years. Homebuyers seeking affordable options turned inland and southward where home prices are less expensive.

Home prices in Phoenix, Arizona rose 6.00 percent year-over-year in September and claimed the top spot for home price growth in Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index. Charlotte, North Carolina held second place in home price growth with a reading of 4.60 percent year-over-year.

Tampa, Florida rounded out the top three cities with home price growth of 4.50 percent year-over-year. September’s readings indicate slowing home price growth as compared to double-digit growth rates that dominated Case-Shiller Home Price Indices in the past.

Analysts said that while low mortgage rates are helpful to home buyers, strict mortgage requirements and home price growth rates continued to outstrip inflation and wage growth.

New and Pending Home Sales Dip in October

The Commerce Department reported 733,000 sales of new homes in October; this was lower than 738,000 new homes sold in September but exceeded analysts’ forecasts for 705,000 sales. Fewer homes are sold in the fall as peak home-buying season winds down and winter holidays approach; September’s reading for new homes sold was upwardly revised from the original reading of 701,000 new homes sold.

The National Association of Realtors® reported fewer pending home sales in October with a negative reading of -1.70 percent as compared to September’s reading of +1.50 percent. Factors contributing to fewer purchase contracts signed included shortages of available homes and higher mortgage rates in October.

Pending sales are home sales for which purchase offers have been made and the sale is awaiting completion. Pending home sales are a gauge of future mortgage loan volume and completed home sales.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported mixed movement on average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.68 percent and were two basis points higher. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was unchanged at 3.15 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose four basis points to 3.43 percent.

New jobless claims fell sharply last week from 228,0000 claims filed the prior week to 213,000 first-time claims filed last week. The dip in new jobless claims brought last week’s reading near to a post-recession low.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending, public and private-sector jobs and the national unemployment rate. The monthly reading on consumer sentiment will be released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

 

Financial Reports Tagged: Financial Reports, Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 18th, 2019

November 18, 2019 by Kathryn Jean Keller

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 18th, 2019Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new unemployment claims.

Rising Gas Prices Fuel Jump in Inflation

Consumer inflation increased at its fastest pace in seven months according to the Consumer Price Index for October. Consumer prices rose 0.40 percent and exceeded analysts’ forecast of 0.30 percent and September’s reading of 0.00 percent inflationary growth.  Analysts attributed the jump in prices to rapidly rising gasoline prices.

October’s reading for core inflation, which excludes fuel and food prices, supported this view. Core inflation grew by 0.20 percent in October, which matched expectations and exceeded September’s core inflation reading of 0.10 percent.

Year-over-year inflation rose from 1.70 percent to 1.80 percent; this was lower than the top year-over-year reading that approached 3.00 percent.

Fed Chair Says Interest Rates on Hold Unless Economy Deteriorates

In testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said,: “We see the current stance of monetary policy to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong labor market,  and inflation near our symmetric rate of 2.00 percent.”

Mr. Powell said that Federal Reserve Policy is flexible and subject to adjustment as required by future news and economic events. The benchmark Federal Funds rate range is currently 1.50 percent to 2.00 percent.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose six basis points to 3.25 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose seven basis points to 3.20 percent;  the average rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages rose five basis points to 3.44 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

225,000 first-time jobless claims were filed last week; this exceeded expectations of 210,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 211,000 new jobless claims filed. Analysts said the spike in new claims was caused by seasonal anomalies and not by layoffs. New jobless claims are likely to fall as the holiday season approaches and seasonal hiring picks up.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions; the Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Readings on sales of pre-owned homes and consumer sentiment will also be released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Financial Reports Tagged: Financial Reports, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 12th, 2019

November 12, 2019 by Kathryn Jean Keller

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 12th, 2019Last week’s scheduled economic news included the Federal Reserve’s survey of loan officers and the University of Michigan’s report on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Fed Survey of Loan Officers Finds Banks Tightened Lending Standards

The Federal Reserve’s survey of financial institutions found that lenders tightened standards for credit card and other consumer loan approval. Lending officials said that concerns over the economy drove decisions to tighten standards for new credit cards, auto loans, and personal loans.

Lenders also tightened lending requirements for new borrowers in January and March. January’s revision to lending requirements was the strictest since 2009.

Lending officials surveyed said that less tolerance for risk and concerns over new borrowers’ ability to repay loans drove decisions to tighten loan approval requirements. Growing concerns over student loan debt may have influenced lenders’ reluctance to extend credit to new borrowers.

Survey respondents said that they did not tighten requirements for residential real estate loans, but did increase restrictions on commercial real estate loans. Survey participants included 76 domestic banks and 22 foreign banks and agents of federal banks.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week after the prior week’s spike. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell nine basis points and averaged 3.69 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell six basis points to an average of 3.13 percent.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell four basis points to 3.39 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell to a one-month low of 211,000 new claims filed; analysts said that last week’s reading approached a 50-year low and proved the staying power of the strongest job market in decades. In other news, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 95.70 in November as compared to October’s index reading of 95.50. Analysts expected consumer sentiment to fall to 95.00.

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic releases include reports on inflation and retail sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.

Financial Reports Tagged: Financial Reports, Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 28th, 2019

October 28, 2019 by Kathryn Jean Keller

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 28th, 2019Last week’s economic news included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

New Home Sales Dip in September

Commerce Department readings indicated fewer sales of new homes than in August. 701,000 sales were reported in September on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis; 706,000 new homes were sold in August and analysts expected 700,000  sales of new homes.

Sales fell by 0.70 percent month-to-month but were 15.50 percent higher year-over-year. September was the second time in 12 years that new home sales exceeded 700,000 in consecutive months.

Sales of new homes were lower in three of four regions. Sales fell by -2.80 percent in the Northeast and were -3.80 percent lower in the West.  New home sales fell -0.20 percent in the South but rose +6.30 percent in the Midwest. The median sale price of new homes fell in September, which indicated that builders may be building more affordable homes. 

In recent years, builders concentrated on building high-end homes. Real estate pros said there was a 5.50 month supply of new homes available in September as compared to the benchmark reading of a six month supply of homes for sale that indicates markets are balanced between home buyers and sellers.

Sales of pre-owned homes also fell in September.5.38 million previously-owned homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected 5.40 million sales and  5.50 million pre-owned homes were sold in August.

Mortgage Rates Rise;   Initial Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose six basis points to 3.75 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose three basis points to 3.18 percent. 

Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.40 percent and were five basis points higher. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell last week; 212,000 first-time claims were filed. Analysts expected 215,000 claims based on the prior week’s reading of 218,000 initial claims. Analysts said there were no indications of rising layoffs and noted that new jobless claims stayed near a 50-year low.

October’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to an index reading of 95.50 as compared to September’s reading of 96.00. Consumers surveyed were less anxious about trade disputes with China than in September. 

Readings for the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index have held steady in recent months, but remain below the post-recession peak reading of 101.40.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from Case-Shiller on home prices and a statement from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee on monetary policy decisions. 

The Labor Department also reports on Non-Farm Payrolls and national unemployment is also scheduled along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

Financial Reports Tagged: Financial Reports, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

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